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United States
Since its first Poll in 2005, the Lowy Institute has surveyed Australian attitudes towards the US alliance annually. These charts track Australian sentiment about the alliance over the full fifteen years of Lowy Institute polling. This year’s Poll also asked broader questions about Australian attitudes towards the United States, and asked questions about the effect President Donald Trump had had on Australia-US.
Importance of the US alliance
Over the history of the Lowy Institute Poll, Australians have consistently expressed support for the US alliance.
However, low levels of confidence in US President Donald Trump may have had some impact on Australian support for the alliance. Most (72%) of the population still say the US alliance is either ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important for Australia’s security, a four-point drop from 2018. This result remains nine points higher than the low point of 63% in 2007, during the presidency of George W Bush. However, the proportion of Australians saying the alliance is ‘very important’ has dropped ten points to 38%, while the number of those who say it is ‘fairly important’ has increased six points to 34%.
Australians have a track record of fighting alongside the United States in every major conflict since the second World War. In 2019, however, there is lower support for the Australian military to be fighting violent extremism in the Middle East (50%, down 11 points from 2017), and only 43% of Australians are in favour of the Australian military becoming involved ‘if China invaded Taiwan and the US decided to intervene’.
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And now about Australia’s alliance relationship with the United States. How important is our alliance relationship with the United States for Australia’s security?
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Dashed line indicates change in mode. See Methodology.
Attitudes towards the United States
A clear majority (66%) agree that Donald Trump has weakened Australia’s alliance with the United States, and young Australians (aged 18–29 years) in particular hold this view (78%).
In 2011 and 2015, a large majority agreed that ‘Australians and Americans share many common values and ideals [and] a strong alliance is a natural extension of this’. The 2019 results reinforce these findings, with 73% (a marginal four-point drop since 2015) saying that the US alliance is a natural extension of our shared values and ideals. The same number (73%) agree the ‘United States would come to Australia’s defence if Australia was under threat’.
A majority of Australians (56%) say that the alliance relationship with the United States makes Australia safer from attack or pressure from China, a result which is unchanged from 2011. Still, Australians are alive to the shifting dynamics in our region. Almost half (46%) agree that the United States is ‘in decline relative to China and so the alliance is of decreasing importance’, a five-point increase from 2011.
A sizeable majority of Australians (69%) say that ‘Australia’s alliance with the United States makes it more likely Australia will be drawn into a war in Asia that would not be in Australia’s interests’, an increase of 11 points from 2015 but not as high as the peak of that sentiment in 2011 (73%).
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Here are some different arguments about the alliance relationship with the United States. For each one, please indicate whether you personally agree or disagree.
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* Note change in mode. See Methodology.
Trust in major powers
Trust in the United States is relatively unchanged from last year but on a downward trajectory since 2011.
A majority of Australians (52%) say they trust the United States either ‘a great deal’ or ‘somewhat’ to act responsibly in the world. However, this is the lowest level of trust in the United States recorded since we first asked this question in 2006. The highest level of trust in the United States was 31 points higher (84%), recorded in 2009 and 2011, following the inauguration of President Obama.
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How much do you trust the following countries to act responsibly in the world?
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Dashed line indicates change in mode. See Methodology.
2018: Donald Trump and Australia‑US Relations
In 2018, 31% of Australians said ‘Australia should distance itself from the United States under President Donald Trump’ (29% in 2017).
This is fourteen points lower than the number in 2016 who said ‘Australia should distance itself from the United States if it elects a president like Donald Trump’. The number who said we should remain close the United States under President Donald Trump was almost unchanged at 64% (from 65% in 2017, and up 13 points from those who said in 2016 ‘Australia should remain close to the United States regardless of who is elected US President’).
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Now that Donald Trump is President of the United States, which one of the following statements comes closest to your personal view?
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* 2016: Australia should remain close to the United States regardless of who is elected US President.
^ 2016: Australia should distance itself from the United States if it elects a president like Donald Trump
Dashed line indicates change in mode. See Methodology.
2018: Joint military action under Trump
In 2018, it appeared Australians’ broad support for the US alliance is practical in nature, not merely symbolic.
Only 48% of Australians said in 2018 they would be ‘less likely … to support Australia taking future military action in coalition with the United States under Donald Trump’ now that he was President. This was 11 points lower than the 59% in 2016 who said they would be less likely to support Australian military action with the United States under Donald Trump. In other words, reluctance about Australia joining the United States in military action under the Trump administration eased after the President took office.
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Now about Australia joining with the US in future military action. Now that Donald Trump is president of the United States, are you personally more likely or less likely than you were previously, to support Australia taking future military action in coalition with the US under Donald Trump, or does it make no difference to you?
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* This question was first asked in a 2016 poll of 1002 Australian adults conducted between 1 and 9 June 2016 by Field Works Market Research on behalf of the Lowy Institute. The 2016 question wording was: Now about Australia joining with the US in future military action. If Donald Trump becomes president of the United States, would you personally be more likely or less likely than you are now, to support Australia taking future military action in coalition with the US under Donald Trump, or would it make no difference to you?
Dashed line indicates change in mode. See Methodology.