Asked about their priorities between China and the United States, more Australians in 2019 incline towards our traditional ally, the United States.

Half (50%) agree that ‘the Australian government should put a higher priority on maintaining strong relations with the United States, even if this might harm our relations with China’. However, a sizeable minority (44%) say Australia should ‘put a higher priority on building stronger relations with China, even if this might harm our relations with the United States’.

There are significant differences between the views of young and old Australians on this choice. A majority of 18-29 year olds would prioritise building the relationship with China, whereas most Australians aged 60 and over prioritise maintaining strong relations with the United States.

In 2019, Australians’ trust in China to ‘act responsibly in the world’ has fallen to its lowest level in the history of Lowy Institute polling.

Only 32% of Australians say they trust China either ‘a great deal’ or ‘somewhat’ to act responsibly, a 20-point fall from 2018.

An important factor in this cooling towards China may be the continuing debate about foreign influence and China’s alleged interference in Australian politics. In 2018, that debate appeared to have gained little traction in the broader population. However, almost half (49%) in 2019 say that foreign interference in Australian politics is ‘a critical threat’ to Australia’s vital interests, an increase of eight points from last year. The level of trust in China is 15 points lower than the previous low of 47% recorded in 2008, when China received international attention while hosting the Olympics.

Trust in the United States, on the other hand, is relatively unchanged from last year but on a downward trajectory since 2011. A majority of Australians (52%) say they trust the United States either ‘a great deal’ or ‘somewhat’ to act responsibly in the world. However, this is the lowest level of trust in the United States recorded since we first asked this question in 2006. The highest level of trust in the United States was 31 points higher (84%), recorded in 2009 and 2011, following the inauguration of President Obama.

Only 30% of Australians have ‘a lot’ or ‘some’ confidence in President Xi to do the right thing in world affairs, a 13-point drop since 2018 (43%).

More Australians have confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping to do the right thing in world affairs than in US President Donald Trump.

Only 25% of Australians (down from 30% in 2018) have either ‘a lot’ or ‘some’ confidence in President Trump ‘to do the right thing regarding world affairs’, compared with 30% saying the same for President Xi. Among the 223 younger respondents (aged 18–29 years), none (0%) expressed ‘a lot of confidence’ in President Trump, and 66% of that age group said they had ‘no confidence at all’ in the US President. More than half of adult women (52%) have ‘no confidence at all’ in President Trump, compared with 39% of adult men.

The data on all of the nine world leaders that we asked about in 2019 is available here.

There is an increasing debate about whether Australia will eventually be forced to choose between the United States, as its alliance partner, and China, as its largest trading partner. In 2018, around eight in ten (81%) Australians disagreed, saying it is ‘possible for Australia to have a good relationship with China and a good relationship with the United States at the same time’. While this is a six-point drop from the 87% who said this in 2013, it remains a very strong majority. Only 13% say it is not possible for Australia to maintain good relationships with both.

In the past, Australians’ embrace of China as an economic partner probably stemmed from their perception of it as a global economic powerhouse. In 2018, more than half (55%) said China was the ‘world’s leading economic power’, with just 29% seeing the United States as the leading economy. Very few (7%) said ‘the countries of the European Union’ are the world’s leading economic power, although the European Union has the second-largest GDP, on an exchange rate basis, after that of the United States and ahead of China.